The Republican Party is in Deep Trouble

It seems I was wrong about this election and I’ve never been happier.

The Democrats probably won’t keep the House of Representatives, but the fact that there’s a “probably” in there at all is mind-blowing to me. Rampant inflation, a deeply unpopular president, gas prices through the roof, grinding despair, no real plan, yet voters looked at the freak show Trump pushed through the primaries, shrugged, and said “I don’t think so.” They listened to pundits scream about litter boxes in bathrooms and doctors coming for your children, gestured vaguely in the direction of ten-year-olds being forced to carry babies to term, and voted for the party of Not That Shit.

Chapo’s Felix Biederman was right. Republicans lost the Normal Whites. Freaks and weirdos, that’s what’s left. I’ve been hanging out with the freaks and the weirdos so much over the past…???…that I lost sight of how all this looks to people outside the bubble.

The coolest thing that happened on November 8th, by far, happened downballot. It’s the thing that has me more hopeful than I have been since Trump won the primary in 2015. I cannot believe it: efforts to steal the 2024 election may now be impossible.

Here’s how it works. The Supreme Court will soon decide a case that could — and likely will — decouple a state’s popular vote from the electoral college. The state government can nominate whatever electors they choose, and the electors can vote their conscience.

Thing is, you need to control state governments for that strategy to work.

Arizona is too close to call and Ohio is red as hell, but the other swing states are either blue or hamstrung. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have Democratic governors with veto power. Michigan: Democratic. Minnesota: Democratic governor and Senate. North Carolina and Nevada have Republican governors but not a veto-proof Republican majority in the state legislature.

Georgia has a Republican governor and Republican state legislature, but Brian Kemp told Trump to stick it in 2020 and won anyway. He’ll do it again in 2024 if he has to.

DeSantis’ victory, combined with Trump candidate defeats across the nation, has the Republican establishment thinking they might finally — finally — be able to shake Trump. Which means DeSantis is going to run. Which means it’s civil war. Establishment vs MAGA.

I am investing heavily in popcorn, I am stocking the fridge with butter. I am ready for the greatest show on earth.

I don’t think the Republican party can shake Trump, for what it’s worth. DeSantis is in the news all day every day, he runs his mouth constantly; how many people know what he sounds like? Can you put a face with the name? For most Americans the answer to one or both of those questions is “no,” and that’s not an accident. DeSantis looks like a soup dumpling: steamed and ill-defined. His voice is nasal and petulent. He’s seven inches shorter than Trump and doesn’t have a tenth of his charisma.

Trump does not care about the Republican party. He’s said as much for years. Mainstream Republicans have grudgingly accepted him but they don’t like him, and Trump knows this full well. This last year has consisted entirely of Trump pushing mainstream Republicans aside for the most motley collection of fools and sycophants the world has ever seen. He famously despises McConnelland rails regularly about RINOs.

If you think Trump is going to go quietly into that good night for the good of the party, you’re in for a wild 2023.

Trump will go scorched earth on DeSantis and anyone who supports him. He will take his ball and go home. And those 35% of Republicans who stuck with him in the polls through thick and thin, no matter what he was accused of or what he did — some of those people will go home as well. People who did not vote before Trump and likely will not vote for anyone without his blessing. Sure, MAGA loves DeSantis right now. Times change. People change.

45 is already finding out who his friends are. When I read about JD Vance giving Trump the cold shoulder on election night, after everything Trump has done for him, I screamed like a schoolgirl: that idiot, that traitorous fool, he’s going to get what’s coming to him, good and hard.

My prediction: the people willing to do what’s best for the party will cave to the people who aren’t.

Trump can still win the old fashioned way, where he gets the votes without needing states to send hand-picked electors. Two years is a long time.

But wow. Wow. For the first time in a long time, I’m starting to like these odds.